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Market Data & Indicators

Most housing commentary argues about a handful of numbers without agreeing on what they measure. This is what the main indicators are, how they are built, and where they mislead.

The short answer

There is no single housing number. There is a mortgage rate, a price index, a transaction count, a construction count, and an affordability ratio built from three of the others — and they routinely point in different directions. Prices can rise while sales collapse; starts can fall while permits rise.

The live figures behind this section are on the housing data dashboard, refreshed daily from FRED and linked back to each original series.

Where the standard indicators mislead

Two cases are worth knowing. Shelter CPI enters the inflation basket through owners' equivalent rent, a survey construct that lags market rents by roughly a year, so the inflation print describes a housing market that has already moved on.

The second is the price inversion: in Q4 2025 new homes cost $9,600 less than existing ones, reversing a historical premium of about $66,000. Read carelessly that looks like new construction getting cheap. It is mostly builders discounting and buying down rates while existing owners, locked into low mortgages, refuse to sell at anything but a high price.

Weekly tracking

The Friday recaps compile each week's rate moves, price and inventory prints, and the policy developments behind them, so the series can be read in sequence rather than as isolated headlines.

The cluster

All 8 pieces in Market Data & Indicators

Housing Market 2026: Key Metrics Every Buyer Should WatchEssential housing market metrics for 2026: mortgage rates, median home prices, housing inventory, affordability index, and economic indicators that signal where the market is heading.
The Housing Affordability Index: What It Is and Why It's at Historic LowsUnderstanding the NAR Housing Affordability Index: how it's calculated, why it's at the lowest levels in 40 years, and what it reveals about the structural crisis in American housing.
The Housing Inflation Trap: How Shelter CPI's Grip on the Numbers Is Keeping the Fed's Hands TiedShelter CPI rose 3.0% in February 2026 — the single biggest inflation driver. Why the OER lag keeps the Fed's hands tied and mortgage rates above 6%.
The Price Inversion: Why New Homes Are Now Cheaper Than Used Ones — and What It Reveals About the Housing MarketIn Q4 2025, new homes cost $9,600 less than existing ones — flipping a $66,000 historical premium. What this price inversion reveals about monetary policy, rate lock-in, and the aging housing stock.
Friday Market Recap — March 28, 2026: Rates Surge to 6.38%, the Spring Market Window Slams ShutWeek of March 23–28, 2026: 30-year rate surged to 6.38%, up 40 bps from the February low. Q4 GDP at 0.7%. Fed trapped. Spring market faces a reality check.
Friday Market Recap — March 21, 2026: Fed Holds, Rates Climb to 6.22%, and the Spring Market StallsWeek of March 17–21, 2026: FOMC held at 3.5–3.75% with a dovish dissent. 30-yr rate jumped to 6.22%. Pending sales +1.8% but -0.8% YoY. Builder confidence 38 — 21st month below 50.
Friday Market Recap — March 13, 2026: Rates Rebound, Tariffs Hit, and the Spring Market Faces a Dual SqueezeWeek of March 9–13, 2026: Mortgage rates rebounded to 6.11% after a brief sub-6% window. Tariffs added $10,900+ per new home. Housing permits fell 5.8% YoY. Full data through the free-market lens.
Friday Market Recap: February 28, 2026Weekly housing market recap for February 28, 2026: 30-year mortgage rates at 6.47%, housing inventory rising, median home prices up 3.8% YoY, and key policy developments from Washington.